Market Analysis

Despite a short to intermediate term correction, the market continues to look healthy.   The market’s rally from October 2022 to the end of March 2024 can be considered a completed “leg” of this long-term bull market and a period of consolidation can be expected. But if market internals stay strong during this correction, as they have so far, it should be considered a time to put new money in, and/or upgrade holdings to new leadership.

Bull markets climb on momentum, which can also be thought of as trust.  As events like the 2008 Financial Crisis and the 2020 Covid Crash move farther in the past, and no other events like them occur, investors become more comfortable putting their money at risk in the market and the stream of funds entering the market increases.  This influx of liquidity has a powerful effect and tends to build on itself. The deeper the pessimism reached, the longer the time before the pendulum reaches the other extreme, which is euphoria.  The last long-term bull market lasted from the bottom in 1932 to the top in 2000 (keeping in mind there were several big market drops during this long timeframe).  While we do not think we reached the type of low of pessimism in 2008 as they did in 1932, we do think the level we did reach calls for a multi-decade bull market that will bring enormous profit opportunities.

As with all corrections, we will monitor our holdings for signs of leadership changes and deploy funds where the probabilities favor good returns.

Gary and Dianne

This report is provided as a general market overview and should not be considered investment or tax advice or predictive of any future market performance.

Any security mentioned in this report may not be suitable for all investors. No investment mentioned in this newsletter constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a particular investment. Such recommendations can only be made on an individual basis after an assessment of an individual investor’s risk tolerance and personal circumstances. Past performance of any investment mentioned is not a guarantee of future performance. Statements regarding the investment concerns and merits of any company and fair market value computations are strictly the opinion of Marin Group. Employees of Marin Group and Marin Group clients may have positions and effect transactions in the securities of the issuers mentioned herein.